Filling the independence black hole: cuts and job losses under the nationalists
- New research by Scotland in Union
Scotland would face a £10.4 billion shortfall in its public finances on independence, a combination of a higher deficit than the UK and other elements including government set up costs and higher interest costs. It would probably not be feasible to meet this shortfall from higher borrowing, given the likely cost of borrowing and debt servicing for a new country in Scotland’s situation. Instead, as a nationalist politician has pointed out, a period of ‘fiscal consolidation’ – a combination of tax increases and spending cuts – would be needed to reduce the deficit to UK levels.
This briefing paper uses the Scottish Government’s own model of the Scottish economy to estimate the impact on jobs and output from lower demand assuming half the £10.4bn was met through tax increases and half through spending cuts. Under this scenario Scottish Independence would result in 127,500 job losses and a 3% loss of economic output from the fiscal squeeze. It’s time for more honesty from the nationalist leadership about what fiscal plans they have for independence.Read more
As part of the UK, Scotland enjoys a ‘Union Dividend’ of greater resources being made available to government in Scotland than the rest of the UK. The latest figures show that the Union Dividend was worth £7.9 billion last year – roughly equivalent to Scotland’s entire budget for education and training. The Union Dividend was used to keep both capital investment and spending on public services higher than in the rest of the UK, and also to keep taxes down.Read more
The House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution has now released its latest report on the Union and Devolution.
Scotland in Union submitted written evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on the Constitution. Our contribution is referenced in footnotes of the report itself.
Our written evidence: (UDE0017) 'HOW CAN WE STRENGTHEN AND STABILISE THE UNION?' can be found here.
For today's newly released report (25/05/2016) from the House of Lords Select Committee then please see here
Scotland in Union has no specific position on the European Union referendum. Other than to emphasise that this is a UK-wide vote and we must respect the democratic outcome no matter what it is.
Scotland plays a key role in the Atlantic alliance and global security as part of the UK, contributing fully to the UK’s professional armed forces. Our armed forces are the envy of many countries, and are universally respected for their capability.
If it left the UK, Scotland would lose influence over Western defence policy, thus, in effect, losing influence over its own defence. Nationalist policies would undermine the UK’s role as a key member of NATO, and Scotland’s armed forces and defence-related industries would face rapid decline.
Fortunately, in 2014 Scots decided to stay in the UK and thus we continue to wield international influence and benefit fully from global alliances and co-operation. As a result we are safer abroad and at home in today’s uncertain world.
To read the full report click here.Read more
Healthcare in Scotland is entirely devolved to the Scottish Parliament, which can decide on both overall policy and financing of the NHS. Nationalists have made misleading claims that cuts to the NHS at the UK level could adversely affect Scotland. In fact it is the current nationalist administration that has cut spending in Scotland relative to the rest of the UK.
Click here to read our latest research.Read more
If Scotland had voted yes then its first year as an independent state would have cost £10bn, says new researchShare
Scotland in Union has welcomed new research which shows Scotland enjoys higher spending on public services, more capital investment and lower taxes as a result of being in the UK.Read more
New research by Scotland in Union has shown support for another referendum is falling.Read more
The key economic policy powers have now been devolved to the Scottish Parliament, according to a survey of policy experts conducted by Scotland in Union.Read more