Does Channel 4's new opinion poll show majority support for independence?

The SNP has created headlines after claiming a Survation poll reveals that a majority of Scots now back independence. Does the evidence back this up?

The Claim:

 

“Respondents to the @Survation poll by @Channel4 were also asked whether, from what they have seen and heard so far over Brexit, they would more or less likely to vote for Scottish independence.

“The figures would mean a majority of 51.39% for independence, with 48.61% against.”

 

Ross Colquhoun, SNP strategist, Twitter, Monday, November 5th, 2018.

    The facts

  • Survation carried out a poll of over 20,000 people online across every constituency in the UK from October 20th - November 2nd. It included around 1,700 respondents in Scotland.

Q.

From what you have seen and heard so far do you think that Brexit makes it more likely or less likely that you would vote to support an independent Scotland? (Respondents in Scotland only)

 

A.

More likely: 38%

Neither more nor less likely: 31%

Less likely: 25%

Don’t know: 6%

 

  • Survation did not ask how people would vote in a second independence referendum. The last opinion poll asking this question, from Survation in October, put Yes on 45% and No on 55% - no change from the 2014 referendum.

Q.

If Brexit leads to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and becoming and independent country, would you be: (Respondents in Scotland only)

A.

Very concerned: 40%

Quite concerned: 17%

Not very concerned: 13%

Not at all concerned: 25%

Don’t know: 5%

 

What the experts say

 

 

Survation, Twitter, November 5th, 2018

“Sorry to disappoint @rosscolquhoun, but there isn't a headline Scotland voting intention in tonight's tables (Scotland was not weighted separately, so calculating the Westminster crossbreak for Scotland does not get you there). There is also no Scottish Indy Ref voting intention.”

Sir John Curtice, polling expert, October 27th, 2018 

“There is still no sign that the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is persuading more voters of the merits of independence.”

 

Scotland in Union Fact Check Conclusion:

The SNP has attempted to manipulate a poll, and was caught out.

 

Survation did not ask people how they would vote in a second independence referendum, and the last poll to do so showed that 55% of Scots support remaining in the UK. In the latest poll, 57% of Scottish respondents said they would be concerned if Brexit leads to Scottish independence.

The SNP is weaponising Brexit to focus on the only thing it cares about - independence.

This is an important reminder for Remain voters in Scotland that the Nationalists want to use your vote to break up the UK. Whatever your views on Brexit, independence is not the answer. We are better off as part of the UK

Does Channel 4's new opinion poll show majority support for independence?

The majority of people in Scotland want us to remain

in the UK.

It's time the SNP stopped playing constitutional games and got on with the day job.

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